Elections in Bolivia

Twist in the elections in Bolivia: even without the official results, the interim president of Bolivia, Jeaninez Añez, has already recognized the victory of the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). Yes, because the percentage of votes in favor of Evo Morales’ heir, Luis Arce, is so large, with over 53 percent, while the second candidate, former president Carlos Mesa (CC), collected about 30. percent, that there can be no doubt.

The Supreme Electoral Court, a few hours before the vote, suspended the “quick count” because it was “unreliable”: the actual results will arrive in a few days with the manual count, but the post-vote poll is reliable. “We still don’t have the official result, but from the data that there are Mr. Arce and Mr. Choquehuancha have won the election. My compliments to the winners and I ask them to govern with Bolivia and democracy in mind, ”President Agnes wrote on Twitter.

Shortly after Morales from his exile in Argentina congratulated on the victory of the MAS, Luis Arce from La Paz declared: “We have recovered democracy on a peaceful and quiet day” and ensured a process of change without hatred and learning from mistakes. . “We will govern for all Bolivians, we will build a government of national unity, we will unite the country,” said Arce speaking to a Bolivia split by polarization and also divided between the Andean area that has always been pro MAS and the region of the plains and the jungle, richer and close to the CC, and therefore giving hope to mend the social fabric. Arce also thanked the international observers for their presence.

In Bolivia, the candidate who reaches 50 percent of the vote wins in the first round, but if he reaches 40 percent of the vote with a 10 percent difference on the second candidate, he wins. Luis Arce then swept away in the first round and the MAS won the majority in both the Senate and the House. There are 7 million voters in a country with 12 million inhabitants, and so far the vote count is around 4 percent.

In third place was the candidate on the right, Luis Fernando Camacho, with 14 percent and then the smaller parties. Not even the resignation of the presidential elections was needed in order not to disperse the votes of the anti – Morales, made by the current president Agnes, and by the former president Jorge «Tuto» Quiroga.

The Fundación Jubileo survey was carried out on a sample of 4,711 polling stations, with a margin of error of 1.48 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent. This does not include the non-decisive foreign vote, which in Italy recorded 397 valid votes in Rome, Milan and Bergamo, of which according to unofficial sources, 223 were in favor of the center-right candidate Carlos Mesa and 77 for the MAS.

The electoral process took place a year after the failed 2019 vote, in which President Evo Morales was running for a fourth consecutive term, an election canceled on suspicion of fraud and a social uprising that resulted in 36 deaths and ended in renunciation and the exile of the MAS leader. Results that, like it or not, show that democracy works even if it does not count with the strong powers.

Paulo Bentu

Visiting Fellow

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